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Founding
President, the Institute for Jewish People Policy Planning
Zionism as a revolution in history
is an exceptional success. Not only has Zionism brought about a
sharp turn in the fate of the Jewish People by establishing a Jewish
state and concentrating in it about half of the Jewish People, but
the results of the revolution fit in principle the intentions of
its thinkers, founders and initial leaders. The explanations of
this unusual phenomenon include, inter alia, the relatively large
number of carefully elaborated visions which accompanied the Zionist
revolution and guided it 1.
Thus, unique is the fact that the same person wrote a Zionist utopia,
published a detailed political plan and also serves as the founder
of the modern Zionist movement and its first head – namely
Benjamin Zev (Theodor) Herzl.
Since the establishment of the State of Israel nearly no utopias
have been written in it or in the Jewish People. This is a sign
testifying to the weakness of value creativity and scarcity of future-directed
thinking accompanied by lack of long-term policies in many domains.
Given the predicaments of the State of Israel and the Jewish People,
this endangers the future. Hence the need to encourage and stimulate
futuristic imagination and reflection, including writing of utopias
and development of realistic visions, inter alia as a basis for
policy planning.
Future-oriented cogitation can be divided into three levels different
in time horizons and realism: Utopias; realistic visions; and short
and medium-term operational plans.
Utopias are an expression of values translated into the patterns
of an imagined society radically different from existing ones. Utopias
are not limited to what seems feasible. Furthermore, utopias are
not bound to any time table and usually do not point out realization
steps, though there are utopias which the authors hope will be realized
and which are presented as a call for social transformation. However,
in the Zionist movement there was a unique fusion between utopias
and action, as Zionism as a whole was a utopian movement dense with
utopian deeds in addition to the dream of establishing a Jewish
state in the land of the Fathers, such as the Kibbutz movement.
Albeit, utopias too have to take into account basic features of
human beings as seen by the author – in distinction from myths
or science fiction, which can present imaginary creatures deviating
in their very nature from humans or any other known living being.
Realistic visions are different in nature. They present desired
future for a given date, with a mixture between innovation and continuation
of the present situation, which are regarded as achievable within
a stipulated time, though realization may require a maximum effort.
Thus, realistic visions serve as a guiding compass for policies
which usually are not revolutionary or aiming at radically transformative.
Realistic visions are a well known and often used instrument for
policy planning in organizations and governments. Tried-out methods
and experienced professionals are available for developing realistic
visions – in contrast to utopia writing which is task and
mission for visionaries and creative thinkers.
Modern policy planning approaches recommend development of realistic
visions, both in governments and in business corporations, as an
important tool of strategic leadership. Realistic visions also facilitate
consensus when interested groups participate in their preparation,
as it is easier to reach agreement on a desirable future than on
current operations directly impinging on present interests. Furthermore,
realistic visions stimulate effort by presenting ambitious but not
impossible goals.
The time horizon of a realistic vision should take into account
the length of time needed for bringing about aimed-at changes and
results on one hand and the limits of outlook on the other. Usually,
realistic visions deal with twenty to thirty years in the future,
so that those prepared now will present desirable and perhaps achievable
realistic visions for the years 2025 to 2035. The test of feasibility
is building of scenarios which show in stages, say of five years
each, ways for moving from present realities to the future presented
in the realistic vision. But realistic visions also include an essential
component of value and goal clarification and are open to creative
imagination, but within much more rigid constraints than utopias.
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1 See Rachel Elboim-Dror,
Yesterday' Tomorrow: Volume A. The Zionist Utopia; Volume B.
A Selection from Zionist Utopias (Jerusalem: Yad Izhak Ben-Zvi,
3rd printing), 2002, in Hebrew, English version in preparation. |
The main foundations for writing utopias
are values and imagination, sometimes together with insight into historic
processes; in contrast, the main foundations for preparing realistic
visions include knowledge of present realities, outlook capacities
together with sensitivity to uncertainty, understanding developmental
processes shaping the phases of transition from present facts into
future situations, and values which are translated into concrete goals
with goal-costing. A good and unique illustration of a realistic vision
prepared in Israel is "Project 2020" 2,
which made a concrete contribution to the physical master plans prepared
by the government. But that realistic vision is outdates, partial
and based on value stances which are debatable from a Jewish-Zionist
perspective.
There is also scope and need for "realistic nightmares",
that is descriptions of future situations which may realize within
given time horizons and which are bad and also catastrophic. Parallel
to realistic nightmares are "distopias", that are negative
utopias. Distopias warn of bad futures which are not around the corner
while realistic nightmares present bad situations which may come about
in the foreseeable future. While distopias serve as a kind of "alarm"
in respect to distant dangers, realistic nightmares point at concrete
and near dangers. Therefore, realistic nightmares can serve as "negative
compasses" for policy planning by pointing out possibilities
which must be avoided – and this is very important because prevention
of bad futures is a main objective of policy planning, together with
working for the realization of good future.
Utopias and realistic visions share the need for value foundations,
whether very innovative as usually in utopias, or applying more or
less present values, as usual in realistic visions. It follows, that
what is seen by holders of a given value system as a utopia or a realistic
vision can be considered by believers in other values to be a distopia
or a realistic nightmare. For example, an image of a future in which
humanity reduces uses of technology together with material standards
of living while strictly preserving the ecology will be regarded by
those who believe in deep "green" values as a utopia, while
those accepting a technological Weltanschauung will read the same
image of the future as a distopia.
Utopias are very distant from present realities and are not an instrument
of policy planning while realistic visions are relatively near to
contemporary situations and do serve as a main basis for policy planning.
But the distinction is not always clear and sharp. There are many
visions of the future which are in-between utopia and realistic vision,
such as the book by Shimon Peres The New Middle East. But the distinction
between utopias and realistic visions on one side and operations plans
on the other is clear and sharp.
The third level of futuristic thinking includes more or less detailed
operation plans for short or medium time spans, usually between one
and five years. Operational plans are a main tool of policy planning
and management used widely in high-quality organizations. But care
must be taken not to let operational plans become a Procrustean bed,
especially so in an epoch of rapid change such as ours. The more rapid
the rhythm of change the more should operational plans be elastic
and the more should they be periodically adjusted to new circumstances
which could not be foreseen.
Elaboration of operational plans is a professional activity. They
too need clarification of goals as well as order of priority, but
on much more concrete a level than realistic visions and all the more
so than utopias. Furthermore, operational plans must include resources
estimations and allocations and therefore need integrating with multi-year
budgeting.
It follows, that there is a hierarchy of thinking and also dreaming
on the future: Utopias are the most “visionary”; realistic
visions are in-between vision and reality; and operational plans are
reality-near. All three levels stimulate value and goal clarification
and serve as important bases for the ambition to influence the future
in different ways – through influencing public opinion and by
governmental, social or individual action, as may fit the subject.
Therefore, if a people or state want to engage seriously in “future
weaving”, to use Plato’s term in The Statesman”,
they need a good portion of utopian contemplation and writings, realistic
visions and elaborate multi-year operational plans. But there is a
division of labor: Utopia writing is a task for inspired individuals.
Development of realistic visions is a half-visionary and half-professional
task for knowledgeable individuals, for civil society bodies, and
for organizations and governments. And preparation of operational
plans is clearly an organizational-professional task. |
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2 This was a multi-volume
realistic vision of Israel for the year 2020 prepared at the initiative
of a group of professors and planners from the Technion - The Haifa
Institute of Technology, headed by Professor Adam Mazor. Though
professionals from different disciplines were involved, the overall
frame of the project was physical planning in a broad sense of that
term. Some of the findings and ideas emerging from the study were
striking and had significant impact, such as the need to adjust
land use to Israel becoming one of the most densely populated countries. |
Utopias and distopias, realistic visions and nightmares,
and operational plans – these three, in various combinations,
serve as road guides and essential foundations for efforts to deliberately
influence the future. But it is not obvious that one should try and
do so. If one does not care about the future or if one is sure that
the future will be good without any effort to influence it, then there
is no need for trying to weave the future with the help of carefully
considered interventions in historic processes. But this definitely
is not the situation of Israel as a Jewish State and of the Jewish
People as a whole. The Jewish and Zionist aspiration is to assure
a thriving future for the Jewish People and for a Jewish and democratic
State of Israel at its center. But such a future is far from assures.
The opposite is true. Many trends in Israel and in Jewish communities
world-wide, as well as external developments 3,
give cause for serious worries about the likelihood of decline and
also, to mention the unmentionable, the not-to-be excluded possibility
of catastrophe.
Also to be taken into account is the fact that the values and meanings
of "Zionism", "Jewish State" and "thriving
of the Jewish People" are not subjected to serious discourse
clarifying and adjusting them to the new circumstances of the twenty-firth
century, as necessary for qualifying them to serve as guides into
the future. Therefore, it is imperative, inter alia, to encourage
and induce writing of utopias and development of realistic visions
for Israel and the Jewish People. This is necessary for clarification
of values and for providing foundations for policy planning and choice
effective in advancing the Jewish People and the State of Israel towards
well-considered desirable futures.
It is this need which makes the present book and the initiative to
encourage thinking and writing on images of desirable Jewish-Zionist
futures very important.
To try and further augment the significance and utility of such thinking
and writings as a compass for policy and action, let me conclude this
short preface with six recommendations for those willing and able
to strain their mind and soul and try to craft utopias and realistic
visions for the Jewish People and Jewish-Zionist and democratic Israel:
1. Clarify to yourself whether you are designing a utopia or developing
a realistic vision and be consistent in writing accordingly.
2. In any case, whether you are writing and utopia or a realistic
vision, you have to explicate and clarify to yourself and to your
readers the values on which your text is based and the goals you want
to advance, If you develop a realistic vision goal priorities need
also explication.
3. If you are writing a utopia, still it deals with human beings,
Jews and Zionists. Therefore, despite the imaginary nature of utopias,
you have to take into account the potentials and limits of what are
possible for human beings and societies, including the Jewish People
and the State of Israel within their environments.
4. If you are developing a realistic vision, you have to decide for
yourself and explicate clearly to the readers the time horizons at
which you aim.
5. Also, in a realistic vision you have to remain within the domain
of what is attainable given maximum effort within the time frame you
have chosen.
6. Though not laid down explicitly, you can choose to proceed along
a "negative" rout, writing a distopia or realistic nightmare,
as the desirable can be derived from what is to be avoided.
The Education Department of the Jewish Agency and its research and
development unit, together with additional contributors, initiated
the project to which this book is dedicated. For this they deserve
much appreciation. Writing of utopias and development realistic visions
on the future of the Jewish People and the State of Israel is very
important in encouraging creative cogitation, facilitating value clarification,
positioning educational symbols and presenting challenges to action.
The utopias and realistic visions which will be written within the
project are sure to serve as important material in Jewish and Zionist
education; and, hopefully, some of the writers will join the informal
college of Jewish and Zionist innovative and creative thinkers. Not
less important is putting aspirations and plans for the future on
the public discourse agenda, which nowadays focuses too much to focus
on current troubles and thereby neglects fundamental issues of moving
towards a thriving future.
In addition, as explained, utopias and in particular realistic visions
are essential for forming long-term and effective policies. This is
the raison d'etre of the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute established
by the Jewish Agency as an independent professional Think Tank and
policy R&D organization. Utopias and realistic visions are important
groundings for fulfilling the missions of the Institute by presenting
value bases, options and ideas which can be of help in planning, choice
and action. The Institute will carefully study all that is written
within the initiative for which this book serves as a basis and will
utilize if for long term and comprehensive policy planning for the
Jewish People. Therefore, writers of utopias and realistic visions
can be sure that their efforts are of importance for choices made
by Jewish People policy makers, in addition to the educational and
value-clarifying importance of their creations to all of the Jewish
People. |
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3 For instance, see Yehezkel
Dror, “The Future of Israel: I. External Factors”. Israel
Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, Summer 2001, pp. 90-106; and Yehezkel Dror,
“Confronting Atrocious Evil”. Midstream, January 2003,
pp. 18-20. |
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