A New Opportunity in the Middle East

As happened in 1991, a war with Iraq may well lead to a major shift in the balance of power, changing the Middle East irreversibly.

Israel & the Palestinians

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict will certainly return to center stage: it is expected that the US will seek to jump-start the peace process in the Middle East. It is anticipated that the new initiative will include plans to create a Palestinian state within three to five years, based on the Bush "Road-map" and pressure from other members in the "Quartet".

Turkey

The war is expected to seriously damage the economy of Turkey and expose Turkey to an Iraqi military threat. Depending on the length of the war, a growing popular discontent in Turkey is possible, especially by the Kurds. Turkey is demanding NATO fulfills its commitment to protect her borders. Recent polls show 87 per cent of Turks oppose US action in Iraq.

Syria

Much will depend upon whether Syria will allow Hezbollah to heat up Israel’s northern border. Many analysts fear that Israel could be drawn into a confrontation with Syria, fought in Lebanon, during a US-led attack on Iraq. During the war or following it, Syria may well be more directly pressured by the US to hold in, or stop supporting terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas – or be next on the US list of threats to the world.

Jordan

Jordan is in a precarious position. As in 1991, Jordan is caught between Israel and Iraq. It is dependent on trade with Iraq and any US strike will seriously damage the country’s economy. Jordan has a Palestinian majority; King Abdullah is also said to fear that the creation of a Palestinian state in the territories could destabilize his monarchy.

Saudi Arabia

Many in the US are already questioning Saudi Arabia’s links with terrorists groups. Speculation grows that the US alliance with Saudi Arabia will weaken once Iraqi oil fields are opened to the West.

Iran

Iran will be the major beneficiary of a US war with Iraq, and it has committed itself to neutrality during operations – partly out of the regime's own concern for survival. A weakening of Iraq will, de facto, strengthen Iran. Iran has the potential for obtaining nuclear capability within three years and has just announced the discovery of uranium ore within the country. Iran may also be able to influence any Shiite members of the newly formed Iraqi government from the outside.

Egypt

A war with Iraq is likely to lead to a growth of Islamic fundamentalism and anti- western fervor. Egypt has a problem containing militant Islam and it may well have to take more draconian action to contain it. Egypt wishes to play an important role in the overseeing of the creation of a Palestinian State.