| The continuation of Israel’s Jewish-Zionist
existence is not something to be taken for granted and may come
to an end if preventive measures are not taken. Two factors will
determine Israel’s future demographic composition: natural
population increase rates within Israel and the Palestinian refugee
issue.
Within the territory of the State of Israel, the Jews in 2001
constituted 73% of the population. Because of the rapid natural
increase of the Palestinian population, it is expected that the
percentage of the Jewish population within Israel will drop to 68%
by 2020, despite continuing immigration to the country. When the
West Bank and Gaza Strip are taken into account, the picture is
even more dire: Jews in 2001 constituted 51% of the entire population;
in 2020, this percentage is expected to amount to 42% (1). In other
words, by 2020 there will be more Arabs than Jews between the Jordan
River and the Mediterranean Sea. This dry statistic, according to
many, has only one meaning. If Israel keeps the West Bank and Gaza
under its control, it will have to choose between two painful options:
either losing its Jewish character or ceasing to be a democratic
state. That is, if Israel wants to remain both Jewish and democratic,
it has to pull out of the territories, in which presently reside
some 3.5 million Palestinians. With natural population growth working
to their advantage, the Arabs are assured of becoming a demographic
majority in what is now Israel and the West Bank and Gaza.
The table below presents the composition of the population in Israel
and all Western Israel (in thousands) in the year 2000 and predicted
to 2020.
| |
2000 |
Notes |
2020 |
|
In Israel |
| Jews |
4,900 |
73% of population |
6,400 |
68% of population |
| Arabs |
1,300 |
|
2,100 |
Including Jerusalem Arabs |
| Others (non-Jews) |
500 |
|
900 |
|
| Total in Israel |
6,700 |
|
9,400 |
|
| In the Palestinian Entity |
| Arabs in Gaza Strip |
1,200 |
|
2,500 |
|
| Arabs in Judea & Samaria |
1,800 |
|
3,300 |
|
| Total Arabs in Palestinian Entity |
3,000 |
|
5,800 |
|
| In Western Israel (British Mandatory Palestine) |
| Total Arabs and others in Western Israel |
4,800 |
49.5% of Western Israel |
8,800 |
58% of Western Israel |
| Total population in Western Israel |
9,700 |
The Jews form 50.5% of the total population |
15,200 |
The Jews form 42% of the total population |
Definitions:
Israel = the State of Israel
Western Israel = from the Mediterranean to the
Jordan River (or British Mandatory Palestine)
Palestinian entity = West Bank and Gaza Strip
References:
as cited in Arnon Sofer, Israel, Demography 200-2020: Dangers
and Opportunities (Data from Central Bureau of Statistics,
Y. Ravid.)
The second demographic threat Israel faces is the prospect of
the return of Arab refugees to their homes in Israel, which remains
at the heart of disagreement between Israelis and Palestinians in
any negotiations on a final status agreement.
In 1948, in the heat of Israel’s War of Independence, hundreds
of thousands of Arabs left their homes to seek shelter in other
Palestinian areas, safely away from the fighting or even outside
Mandatory Palestine, mostly in neighboring Lebanon and Jordan. The
cause for this massive exit is the topic of heated public debate:
how many of the refugees obeyed the call of Arab leaders to leave
their homes only until after Israel’s anticipated defeat;
how many were forcefully expelled by IDF units; how many withdrew
in fear of warfare. In any case, the fact remains that it has been
the firm policy of the Arab states to refuse to absorb their brothers
as citizens into their countries. Instead, generations of Palestinian
refugees have been living in squalid refugee camps in Lebanon and
Jordan.
According to UN estimates the number of Palestinian refugees in
1949 was approximately 700,000, and in 1922 their number was estimated
at some 2.7 million. This figure also includes persons displaced
by the June 1967 War, now living mostly in Jordan, as well as some
800,000 Palestinians who live in Jordan.
The Palestinians claim that every Palestinian not living today
in his home and on his land as they existed in 1948, has the right
to return to them. Their formal position has remained unchanged,
strongly insisting that within any peace agreement, Israel allow
the return of all refugees to their homes. They base this claim
on a Palestinian “right of return”.
Over the years, Israel has responded to individual requests and
has allowed the returned of several tens of thousands of refugees
on humanitarian grounds, as part of its policy of “family
reunification”, while rejecting any massive return of refugees.
Although Israel’s formal position is to reject the Palestinian
demand for the return of all Palestinians and their extended families
to their former homes in Israel, the government is willing to negotiate
a compromise as part of a peace agreement.
Sources:
Shlomo Gazit, The Palestinian Refugee Problem,
Final Status Issues:Israel-Palestinians, Study No. 2, Jaffee
Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-Aviv University, 1995.
Arnon Sofer, Israel Demography 2000-2020: Dangers
and Opportunities, National Security Studies Center, University
of Haifa, 2001.
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